Energy analyst Clyde Mallison says that South Africa could hit stage 9 load shedding in June if the country is hit with cold snaps.
South Africans need to prepare themselves for higher stages of load shedding in the coming months as the country heads into winter – and power utility Eskom is already struggling to keep the lights on.
The company announced that all-day stage 6 load shedding would be implemented until further notice after it got hit with further breakdowns at its power stations on Wednesday night (12 April).
Eskom lost a unit at the Medupi power station in the evening, adding to the breakdowns at other stations during the day, delays in returning units to service, and others being taken offline for scheduled repairs.
According to Eskom, it only had 24,700MW of generating capacity available versus demand of 31,400, necessitating the stage 6 load shedding.
Electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said last week that South Africa’s supply and demand profile is typically 27,000MW/32,000MW during the summer months – and this is likely to jump to 27,000MW/37,000MW in winter.
With over 17,500MW taken offline overnight, Eskom’s breakdowns are already beyond its planned risk level of 17,200MW offline, which spells bad news for the coming months.
The group’s latest Generation Adequacy Report presents a dismal picture for winter, with the group’s likely risk scenario showing red across the board – pointing to above two stages of load shedding throughout.
Ramokgopa has warned that it will be an extremely difficult time.
